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Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific: 21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10). A visual of my prediction can be found here. AndrewTalk To Me 01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Geez Andrew, that's a little too ''wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: '''20 '''depressions, '''18 '''named storms, '''12 '''hurricanes, and '''5 '''major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem ''very ''unlikely IMO. Steven09876 05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC) ::Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC) 12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys. Steve820 20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!) Steve820 00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC) Pre-season predictions About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :Maintaining my forecast from above. AndrewTalk To Me 20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC) ::El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to '''20-24' named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992. Steve820 03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC) :::::My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC) September 18E.RACHEL Aoi: Near Central America 0/20. It should become a low pressure area by early next week then gradually develop under favorable conditions. Rachel anyone? :) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:24, September 20, 2014 (UTC) :GFS now shows it. It was likely late too show it due to lack of divergence, but it was late on Norbert as well. Euro and HWRF develop this. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:02, September 20, 2014 (UTC) ::It's now 30/60, Rachel should come out of this probably soon. I predict possibly the 11th hurricane in a row from this system.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 18:16, September 21, 2014 (UTC) 99E.INVEST Possibly? There is nothing from stopping this from exploding. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:25, September 21, 2014 (UTC) :Ahhh, Rachel: the next name on the list, and the one I've been banking on for extreme intensity. Rooting for a powerful system from this one. How strong do you think future Rachel will get, YE? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:40, September 22, 2014 (UTC) ::60/80. Some shear early on much like Odile. Global models bring this to the 970s mbar, which when converted for resolution (next year, we won't have that problem) is a borderline Cat 3. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:42, September 22, 2014 (UTC) ::I think I should now ask the question: can we reach the greek alphabet for the first time in the EPAC? leeboy100My Talk! 00:13, September 23, 2014 (UTC) :::No. The season is mostly finished. This isn't the ATL where it peaks in September. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:39, September 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::The EPac might slip in a few more storms in October (which is no month to be taken lightly, as evidenced by historic EPac storms like Kenna '02, Mexico '59, and Mazatlan '57), but other than the possibility of a strong major or two (hopefully one not affecting land, Odile was bad enough), both the Atlantic and EPac should wind down from here on out. October is the WPac's most active month though, and after that the SHem turns on. 'Ryan1000' 01:54, September 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::It's now 70/90. Yeah Ryan, the Atlantic and EPac should wind down from here on out, but we'll probably get a few more storms cranking in those basins before they shut down for good. Leeboy, unless we get some unexpected miracle we won't make it to the Greeks, I predict for the season to end at around '''Winnie', meaning I'll win in the betting pools! :D I Anyways it should be a depression tomorrow and I have a rapid strengthening feeling from this guy. Upper level winds infront of the system are getting more conductive and I wouldn't be surprised to see a major from this invest. #upcominghurricanerachel (sorry, just felt like doing that) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:41, September 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Awww, I was hoping to reach the Greeks ::::::#dissapointmentthatwewon'treachGreeks ::::::(why are we using hashtags now :P) ::::::leeboy100My Talk! 00:04, September 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::#hashtagsarethebestthat'swhy :P Anyways, the invest is still 70/90, I predict a depression to come tomorrow. And then Rachel might come soon too.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:49, September 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Everyone should remember that the Epac have a secondary peak like the Atlantic in October so we might get 4 more storms in October and 1 in November. Hope Rachael becomes a major as she is going out to sea.Allanjeffs 04:07, September 24, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Now numbered, forecast to become Rachel and peak as a TS. However, this is only the first advisory, and there is more than one major this year that was only forecast to peak as a TS when they began. Ryan1000 21:04, September 24, 2014 (UTC) :This forecast is trickier than most realize. SST upwelling has hurt to some extent, the potential for these systems. The main issue is lack of divergence though. I think we could get a Cat 1 at least. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:10, September 24, 2014 (UTC) :I really believe this one is just going to be a ts. wind shear and cold upwelling left by other storms this season are going to affect her.Allanjeffs 23:37, September 24, 2014 (UTC) ::I'll take the loss in the betting pools (I predicted Rachel would be the strongest storm of the season) but I'd still really like to see the first-ever ''Hurricane Rachel this year. I'll be pretty disappointed if Rachel breaks the hurricane streak :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:09, September 25, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Rachel For the first time in 24 years, we have Rachel, 35 kts/1004 mbar. Unfortunately the forecast peak remains 45 kts. Come on, Rach, become a hurricane, you can do this... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:01, September 25, 2014 (UTC) :Before we get too pessimistic, this is not 2013. Take your pessimism to the Atlantic! :P, which hasn't had a major that lasted more than six hours since 2011. In the EPAC, you have to almost approach it differently. In general, there are fewer inhibiting factors, and in seasons like this, (although it appears lack of divergence may hinder this system a bit, odds look decent this may become a high end TS or weak end hurricane), you have to get every storm a chance. Nearly every storm this season has had to face shear early on, many of which became quite powerful. SST's should remain near 26C for a while (by day 4 and 5, you hit a sharper SST gradient that may lead to some weakening (may not be enough to dissipate it fully). This is simply one of those seasons where anything can happen, and you have to be very bullish and ignore stuff like the guidance (which is down worldwide, everyone is banking on the GFS upgrade coming this offseason can save the model. The last four models "upgrades" were to the HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC. All four of these models overdue cyclogensis, and only the HWRF and GFDL seems to have improved while the UKMET and CMC have taken big steps back. The GFS spans nothing but phantom storms. It tends to do this early and late season in the Caribbean (and to a leser extent the WPAC), where there is divergence due to the monsoon trough. The models does not take wind shear into account well. The GFS seems to show the same number of TC's each year regardless of conditions. In active year (like the 2000s ATL), it looks good. The past two ATL seasons, it does not look good. But tbh, I am not too impressed by the ECMWF this year either.) Now, getting back to Rachael, the NHC track may be shifting east soon. 0z GFS is not fully out yet, but the 18z showed a bit of a shift E, in line with the GFDL and HWRF. It's the conservative UKMET still keeping this W. With that said, in this part of the world, it is a very common tendency for models to show one thing, then in a few days, shift E as the storm deepens and help erode the ridge (i.e. Marty 03, John 06, Norbert 08, Jimena 09, Paul 12, Ivo 13, Norbert 14, and Odle 14), especially with a strong W Coast trough, we would be ripe for a landfall. However, I am of belief that both the ECMWF and GFS (although they sniffed this out two weeks in advance) are overdoing the strength of the trough somewhat, so we'll see. Track of this may somewhat depend on intensity. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:13, September 25, 2014 (UTC) :::There is some upwelling left behind by a few previous storms, but SST's and shear are conducive enough for it to become at least a minimal hurricane. It doesn't have too much time though, I'd really like it to become a cat 1 though. 'Ryan1000' 09:56, September 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Now up to 50 mph, forecast peak raised to 70. Come on, just get a little more organized...you can do it Rachel! 'Ryan1000' 00:10, September 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::::You've got this, Rachel! Become the record-extending 11th hurricane of the season (counting Genny)! :) I've always thought of this name as a strong storm name, but it looks like my wish for the name to be used for a major hurricane won't happen this year. But it might still become a hurricane! C'mon Rachel, you've got this!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:44, September 26, 2014 (UTC) Rachel has now pegged at 45 kts for six straight advisories. I'm going to stay cautiously optimistic because I recall that when Bud did something similar in 2012, the NHC reneged on their forecast for hurricane strength, only for Bud to ultimately peak as a major. Still, it's disheartening that Rachel hasn't strengthened in a day and a half. Hopefully the NHC's initial call for a 45 kt peak turns out to be incorrect... come on Rachel, pull a Bud and get it over with... please! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:10, September 26, 2014 (UTC) :After struggling for a few days (although it was producing very cold cloud tops for a while, which is an indication of significant intensification), Rachael is def in the right direction. May become a hurricane tomorrow if we're lucky. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:52, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::Finally some intensification per ATCF. EP, 18, 2014092700, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1151W, '''55, 994, TS,' 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 1007, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RACHEL, D, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:25, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :::Rachel, you're slowly approaching hurricane strength! You've got this, Rachel! :) I believe it might be a hurricane by Saturday night and peak in the 75-80 mph threshold.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:28, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::Forecast to become a hurricane now, and peak at 75 mph later today. I think the hurricane streak is about to be extended even further to 11. Ryan1000 10:14, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::An eye-like feature is appearing on satellite imagery, and Rachel's convection is "evolving" per the NHC. TAFB and SAB estimates confirm the ATCF info - 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.36 inHg). Due to low shear and moist air, I can definitely see Rachel becoming a hurricane for the first time in the next day or so. A break in the STR is pulling the storm northwestwards, but low-level flow should become a greater influence in the storm's motion per the NHC. Also, for trivia, the past two Rachels of the EPAC (1984 and 1990) both attained winds of 55 knots, and the 1990 incarnation had a pressure of 994 mbar. In other words, if Rachel intensifies any more, she will, like every other girl of the season except Elida, have become her strongest incarnation on record. AndrewTalk To Me 12:02, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::::It's down to the wire. Rachel is still at 55 kts/994 mbar and the NHC says it only has 12 to 18 hours before conditions become less favorable. A re-Hernan/Polo is probably the best we can hope for, but Rachel still might just pull off hurricane strength... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:00, September 27, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Rachel Yes, YES!!! She did it!!! 65 kts/989 mbar per NHC. It will probably peak here, but yay! A hurricane debut for Rachel, and an 11th consecutive hurricane for the EPAC. Color me happy. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:36, September 27, 2014 (UTC) : And the hurricane streak goes on! Congrats Rach! On top of that...we have an AOI behind Rachel at 10/60 for the next two and five days, respectively. We're likely to reach Simon from that, which would be the first "S" name used in the EPac since Sergio in 2006. Additionally, Rachel is the season's 13th hurricane. We need 3 more to tie 1990's/1992's tied record of 16 hurricanes. I can't believe it, but there's actually a good chance we could match or even break those records. If we get a pretty good October with, say 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, we're set for the most active Pacific hurricane season on record, in terms of number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. Ryan1000 20:56, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::Pssst, Ryan, we had Sonia just last year. That was our first EPAC "S" storm since Sergio :P If we hit Trudy, though, we'll have our first EPAC "T" storm since Tina in 1992. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:59, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::: (edit conflict) WOOHOO! It finally happened!!! Congrats, Rachel! It was nice that it pulled off hurricane strength, but it has very little time left to strengthen to at least 80 mph before weakening. We have another Hernan/Lowell, but still, luckily it pulled off a hurricane! :D --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:00, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::: Didn't see that coming. ::: leeboy100My Talk! 21:26, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::: Gah, we had so many fails last year I forgot where we ended at XD. Well, either way, Rachel had her fun, and the shear is kicking up now. It shouldn't last much longer, but hey, at least it became a hurricane. In fact, we haven't had an epic failure TS since Wali. Ryan1000 21:52, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Whoa, it's now at 75 kts/982 mbar per ATCF, didn't see that coming. Maybe it's trying to pull a last-minute stint of RI? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:12, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::It's not Riing. The recent intensification is due to a series of tough calls from a Dvorak standpoint, (you could argue it is 4.0/65 knts now), and is soley Dvorak driven. ADT is ineffective with these kind of TC's. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:29, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Well, Rachel's cloud tops have cooled down since 2100Z, and the latest TAFB/SAB estimates were at 77 knots. The latest advisory confirms the ATCF reading of 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h), with a pressure of 982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg). As a matter of fact, the NHC calls for peak winds of 80 knots (90 mph) before dry air and increasing shear kill the hurricane in a few days' time. Motionwise, a lack of steering influences will cause Rachel to wander for a couple days before the ridge drags it back southwestwards. I surely didn't expect this; hopefully she can become a Category 2! :) As a side note, Rachel is reminding me of Ariana Grande's song Break Free; she is releasing herself from the restriction of wind shear to become the girl we're all praising. Agree, Liz? AndrewTalk To Me 03:17, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Idk why this isn't a surprise. Wind shear was only going to decrease; too many people panic when a system struggles early on due to shear, but is forecast to relax. I love the idea of (for lack of a better word) "comparing" storms to songs, BTW. Never would have thought of that. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:05, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Since the Category 5 Rachel I rooted for in the betting pools seems... unlikely, to say the least... my ideal peak intensity for Rachel would be Category 2 strength. It'd certainly be cool to somehow get a miracle ninth major out of Rach, but notice how we haven't had any storms peak at Category 2 intensity yet this season; the closest ones to doing so maxed out 10 kts too high (Julio and Norbert). Not to mention that if Rachel peaks as a Category 2, we'll have at least one system peak in each category of the SSHWS (TD 16-E; TS Boris, Douglas, Elida, Fausto and Wali; C1 Hernan, Karina, Lowell, and Polo; C2 Rachel; C3 Julio and Norbert; C4 Amanda, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, and Odile; and C5 Marie). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:15, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::This season keeps on impressing me. Just when I thought Rachel only had a slight chance at being a hurricane, it actually holds onto hurricane strength for a while. Cat 2 might not even be out of the question at this point in time, and I'll consider Rachel an official win if it can scrape 100 knots. 'Ryan1000' 10:22, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Come on Rachel, you can do this. leeboy100My Talk! 14:27, September 28, 2014 (UTC) I am saddened to inform you gentlemen that Rachel now looks like poo, and has been downgraded to 70 kts/984 mbar by the NHC. 'Tis a pity that Rachel could not strengthen any further, but there is always 2020! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:54, September 28, 2014 (UTC) : Yeah, it kinda does. Well Rachel, it was fun tracking you! I wish it would've became a C2 but I guess not.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:14, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Aoi: South of Hawaii Aoi: South of Hawaii Another one south of Hawaii, near 0% on the CPHC TWO. It's in very hostile conditions and I would be really shocked if it even got close to being classified as a depression. It's just an extremely random POS storm that won't have a chance.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:28, September 20, 2014 (UTC) : Fell off the TWO, what a waste of an AOI. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 18:16, September 21, 2014 (UTC) Aoi:GFS storm #1 Aoi:GFS storm #1 0/20. 18z GFS brought this near MX. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:09, September 26, 2014 (UTC) : I believe this might be Simon by next week. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:45, September 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I don't see any reason why this AOI couldn't develop. However, do note it is tagging right behind Rachel. Chances of formation are now up to '''50%' for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 12:05, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::10/60. Here comes Simon... Ryan1000 20:56, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::Yep, Simon is just around the corner. Geez, this is a really active EPac season! And if this is the 12th consecutive hurricane...--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:02, September 27, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Steve, I actually wouldn't mind if this AOI continued the hurricane streak one more storm. For trivia, the two Simons of the EPAC - in 1984 and 1990 - both reached winds of at least 55 knots, yet neither became hurricanes. However, the 1990 incarnation was just a kiss away from being so - 60 kts/990 mbar, and if it were not for the cooling SST's it dealt with, IMO that could have been a Hurricane Simon. Sadly, it didn't become one, and it's time for Mr. Seville to become a hurricane for once! :) Anyway, the AOI's chances of formation are now at 20% for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 03:24, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Steve, stop complaining when storms are strong. In a few years, when this historic season is long over, and we've hit an epic -PDO string, you'll be regretting the fact that you did not route for the last few storms to deepen. Anyhow, GFS doing its usual back off now that it's abit offshore. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 04:19, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::I don't think Steve is complaining, at least not if his reaction to Rachel becoming a hurricane is anything to judge by. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:33, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::YE, I'm not complaining, I just think the number of hurricanes we've had so far is just damn dramatic. I never thought we would have 11 hurricanes in a row this season!!! I hope Simon comes from this, and it could possibly be another hurricane, which would be absolutely awesome, since it would extend the record to 12! What an incredible season we've had thus far.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:18, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Mine: *Iselle - 60% - If they tried to retire Daniel, they would try to do this too. *Odile - 70% - Significant damage in Baja California, mostly due to rushed preparations. *Everything else - 0% - Meh. --Isaac829 02:33, September 16, 2014 (UTC) YE's: #Amanda: 1% since it was epic. #Boris: 3% killed a few ppl #Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda. #Douglas 0% Was okay. #Elida 0% Fail #Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail. #Wali 0% See Elida #Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere #Hernan 0% fish system #Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though. #Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii #Karina 0% fish system, but one hec of a storm to track #Lowell 0% Cute structure #Marie 10% $14 mil in damage 3 deaths, but not likely. Very fun to track though. #Norbert 15% Severe ($100 m) damage in both Baja and Arizona, but I can't see this going #Odile 60% This totally deserves to go. Cat 3 into Baja, c'mon. Nearly 1 billion in damage and 15-16 deaths. But MX has a poor track record. #Polo 2% 1 dead and 7.5 mil in damage aint gonna cut it Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC) Steve's retirement predictions: *Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%. *Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths. *Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land. *Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired. *Elida: 1% - It actually did cause some slight impacts, but it's certainly not going and will be back in 2020. *Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said *Wali: -∞% - See Fausto *Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a '''Category 5'!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness. *Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen. *'Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.' *Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020. *Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Pulled a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and lasted longer than expected. *Lowell: 0% - Didn't affect land *Marie: 0% - Awesome Cat. 5 but not going due to lack of land effects. *Norbert: 15% - Flooding in Arizona and effects in Baja, but I'm still a bit positive that it won't be retired. This is no laughing matter though. *Odile: 70% - Strongest Baja landfall ever, and very destructive for the region. It has a fairly decent shot at being retired. *Polo: 1% - A death and some slight damage, but I really don't think it would be retired. *Rachel: 0% - She didn't cause affects on land so it's safe to say she won't be retired and will be back for 2020. Steve820 21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 16:20, September 28, 2014 (UTC)) ::(Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::Leeboy's epic prediction for hurricane retirement (EPAC) ::*Amanda: 1%- While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. (Updated to 1% due to the deaths in Mexico) ::*Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities. ::*Cristina:-'' 1% damage wasn't too bad ::*Douglas- 0% no ::*Elida-0% NO ::*Fausto-0% '''NO' ::*Wali-0% I didn't even know this storm existed. ::*Genevieve- 0% Just like Amanda. Impressive storm that didn't affect land. ::*Hernan-0% it became a hurricane. That's about it ::*'Iselle-55%- Due to its effects on Hawaii ($53 million now up to $66 million and fortunately only 1 death) it has a good chance at retirement. Although the WMO is strange at retiring EPAC names. However, it's safe to say Hawaii will probably request retirement.' ::*Julio-0% an interesting storm to track that almost hit Hawaii. ::*Karina-0% The only reason I can think of that could get this name retired is sounding too much like "Katrina" but no. ::*Lowell-0% See Hernan ::*Marie-0% an amazing cat. 5. Like her sisters Amanda and Genevieve it didn't affect land though ::*''Norbert 30%'' caused 5 deaths and flooding, and it could be upgraded if there is more confirmed damage and deaths '' still only 5 confirmed deaths but damage is $100 million, there have been past storms that have caused bigger losses have NOT been retired (Jimena in 2009 comes to mind) so this may or may not be retired.'' ::*'Odile- 75% as Ryan said in his retirement post before he updated it, Odile "kicked the shit out of baja" so far Odile has caused (as of September 20, 2014) the deaths of 5 people and 4 people to go missing. Damage is actually unknown but the article from wikipedia says damage ''may exceed $906.4 million!!! ''and that doesn't include the damge in Arizona from the remnants. Despite all the snubbing of other storms in the EPAC, this will be retired,and if it isn't then the WMO has some kind of mental condition. And who can forget this picture:' icyclone Odile damage ::*Polo-1% caused one death in Mexico ::*Rachel- currently active leeboy100My Talk! 14:36, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC) :::::So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC) Time for my thoughts: East Pacific: *Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic. *Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement. *Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said. *Douglas - 0% - ^^ *Elida - 1% - Actually it did cause some minor damage here and there, so it's not a 0%. *Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more? *Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2013. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported. *Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane... *'Iselle' '- 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of Iselle's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 66 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear to be too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and so-called "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme. We'll see.' *Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific. *Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land. *Lowell - 0% - The remnants did bring some rain to southern California, but no damages or deaths were reported. In fact, it might have even been beneficial to them since they've been in a severe drought for most of this year. *Marie - 6% - 6th strongest EPac storm on record, and strongest August storm ever (second if you count Ioke), but unfortunately Marie killed 3 people and caused 14 million in damage due to her large offshore swells. Not something to write off as a total fishspinner, but it's not enough for retirement either. *''Norbert'' ''- 23% - Caused extreme flooding over parts of Arizona (100 million, to be precise) and other areas of the southwestern U.S. 5 deaths on top of that give Norbert an outside shot, but as past storms like Paul '82 and Octave '83 showed, the impacts caused by the precursor/remnants of a storm don't usually get retirement, unfortunately. Still upping the percent a bit since the numbers do merit mentioning.'' *'Odile' '- 73% - ''Insured losses from Odile are currently estimated to exceed 906.4 million USD, if we use the 2-to-1 ratio of insured losses to total losses, this thing could've caused 1.8 billion in damage. Add 15 deaths on top of that, and you have a likely retirement canidate. While Mexico is usually quite selective when it comes to retiring names, the damage caused by Odile is unprescedented for Cabo San Lucas, and for all intents and purposes, it deserves to be retired. This percent will go up if total damage turns out to be higher; I wouldn't be surprised if it is.' *Polo - 1% - The outer rainbands did cause flooding in southern Mexico which led to 7.5 million dollars in damage and 1 death, so, like Elida, it isn't a complete fail, but it's still likely not going to be retired. *Rachel - 0% - Yet another hurricane, but was well away from land. '''Central Pacific:' *Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it. And there you have it.'' Ryan1000'' 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC) :Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC) Alright, here are mine as of June 30: *Amanda — <1% Nope. *Boris — ≤1% Nope. *Cristina — <1% Nope. *Douglas — <1% Nope. *Elida — ≤1% Probably nope. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC) : Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC) ::Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC. #Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel. #Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub. #Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe. #Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay. #Elida - 0.5% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she only caused little damage to resorts along Mexico's coast. #Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway. #Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto. #Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day. #Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years. #'Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.' #Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him. #Karina - 0% - Karina fought long and strong for two weeks against everything that could have killed her. But no impacts, so she's not moving a muscle. #Lowell - 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly, but caused nothing. #Marie - 5% - Actually, Marie was a little more impacting than some of you think. The Mexican state of Oaxaca declared a disaster due to all the flooding and landslides, and two people were swept out to sea. Santa Catalina Island reported huge boulders tossed onshore and docked boats were ripped off their stands, which caused $10+ million (2014 USD) in losses. There was also a fatality in Malibu from someone hit by a rock. Marie was surely impressive as a Category 5, but it didn't leave nothing behind. #''Norbert - 30% - Well, the Ridgeback sure caused something. A dam failure occurred northwest of Puerto San Carlos, and three people were swept away from floodwaters across northern Mexico. In California, damage was also notable, with many flooded freeways and stranded vehicles. But the worst happened in Arizona. Sky Harbor Airport in Pheonix recorded in seven hours an entire summer's worth of rainfall. Also, southern areas of the city suffered many closed streets and thousands of customers were powerless in Pheonix and Mesa. As a matter of fact, water levels were so high in Tucson that pumping stations couldn't handle the stress. Flooding was described as the worst in Arizona since 1970, and similarly, rainfall in Nevada caused the worst problems for Moapa Valley in over a century. Five fatalities and all that impact makes Norbert a great candidate for retirement, but if Kathleen in 1976 or Nora in 1997 stayed, well, who knows.'' #Odile - TBA - Still Active AndrewTalk To Me 01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC) We have enough storms for me: ;Eastern Pacific *Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise. *Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement. *Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is. *Douglas: 0% - http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130917044500/glee/images/b/bc/You_tried_.png *Elida: 0% 1% - http://ih1.redbubble.net/image.13056045.3033/fc,550x550,white.jpg :*Actually, there was some impact after all, but it was only minor. *Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm* *Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas. *Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally. *'Iselle:' 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around. *Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish. *Karina: 0% - Fishspinner, but it was also the EPAC's longest-lasting storm in a while. Two weeks is difficult to pull off in this part of the world, and for that, Karina deserves kudos. *Lowell: 0% - Became a hurricane when it was thought that its large size would preclude it from doing so, but other than that, not much to see here. I haven't heard of any adverse affects from Lowell's supposed moisture enhancement in the southeastern United States. *Marie: 4% - It's a pity that this storm couldn't go entirely without impact, but it was still amazing to watch. *Norbert: 20% - Caused terrible flooding in the southwestern United States, but historically speaking (Kathleen '76, Octave '83, etc.), that has not been enough for retirement. We'll see, though. *'Odile:' 55% 70% - This is a preliminary estimate that could go up or down depending on whether or not the damage at the Holiday Inn where the iCyclone team is staying is commonplace, but one thing's for sure: unless we get something even worse later on, this is most likely the storm of this year's EPAC season. And Odile is still a strong hurricane trekking up Baja as I type this. Who knows how bad the damage and death toll could be when it's all said and done. :*The damage is commonplace. That 70% assumes a low death toll from this thing. If Odile killed as many people as I'm afraid it did, it's an 85%. *Polo: 2% - Minor. *Rachel: 0% - Fishspinner, but hey, it became the first Hurricane Rachel ever! ;Central Pacific *Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Here's mine: *Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it. *Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough. *Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish. *Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed. *Elida: 0% - She didn't even try. - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :??? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? AndrewTalk To Me 21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC) :::Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC) ::::My predictions for this season. :::*Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement. :::*Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying. :::*Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere. :::*Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show. :::*Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed. :::*Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm. :::*Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam. :::*Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening. :::*Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying. Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her. ::::Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one. ::::Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land. ::::Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast. ::::Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail. ::::Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all ::::Genevieve: Active ::::Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all. ::::Iselle: 40% not bad but the 2nd most damaging stom until now. ::::Julio: 0% not much can we say ::::Karina:0% Logetivity does not mean retirement ::::Lowell:0 nop you are staying ::::Marie:1% 3 deaths is nothing to joke but she is staying ::::Norbert 5% Flooding was an issue but Baja just saw worse with Odile and USA have seen worse too. ::::Odile: 75% Baja California suffer from this a lot I just saw pics and videos the airport was really damaged and there appears extensive damage. Knowing Mexico it might ask for retirement but it could still not ask they did snoob Karl but seeing how paicific landfalls are rarer it might be the catalyst for Mexico to ask for her. ::::Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee. ::::Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC) :::*Amanda = 10% Too cool for retirement. :::*Boris = 1% Even Boris Johnson thought this storm was nothing special. :::*Cristina = 5% She is beautiful, no matter what you say, but she aint movin. :::*Douglas = -3% Next! :::*Elida = -10% Yawn. :::*Fausto = -821973892638742748% -grabs vomit bucket- :::*Genevieve = 10% Super ADHD storm for the win! :::*Hernan = Yawn% “i liek turtlez 14:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Here's my prediction ::::HERE WE GO! Replacement Names Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: *Ivy *Isha *Isla *Indira *Ines *Ivana *Ilene *Ivette *Ilsa *Isabela *Inga *Ilse *Ivonne *Ivanna Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC) :I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions - *'Iggy' *Innocente *Iphigenia *Isabel *Ione *Isuelt *Irmelin *Inmaculada *Ilse *Imelia AndrewTalk To Me 12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :Iggy is good. 16:31, August 22, 2014 (UTC) I was thinkin'that Iggy would kill mario for 2019. Here's my suggestions: *'Ivy' *'Ivana' *Ivette *'Iggy' *'Ione' *Imelia *Ilsa *Isla *'Inga' *Ivonne Ones that I like the most are in bold. It would also be cool to have a system named after Iggy Azalea. :D --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC) :Or Iggy Pop. I'd much rather have Iggy used in a male context for that reason :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :What about Odile? We could have, Odessa, Odilia (lol), or maybe... for the bronies out there... OCTAVIA. WE NEED OCTAVIA! ANYONE WITH ME? rarity is best pony 18:51, September 16, 2014 (UTC) :::Hmm...if the current damage reports from Odile do turn out to be within the range of several billion dollars, then yes, she's gone. My suggestions for Odile are as follows: *Osana *Orma *Orna *Omena *Oliana *Olivie *Opalina *Ohanna *Olina Olivie might be too close to Olivia, but otherwise, out of these suggestions, I would go with Olina. Ryan1000 20:39, September 16, 2014 (UTC) :My vote goes to Odessa, with Orchid as a runner-up. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:46, September 16, 2014 (UTC) Here are my suggestions: Iselle: *Ilaria *Imelda *Immacolata *Ines *Italia *Ilda *India *Iolanda *Irma *Isabella *Ivy Norbert: (may have a chance at retirement due to AZ flooding, but I wouldn't count on it) *Nazario *Nevio *Nico *Nicola *Nino *Natalio *Nathan *Najee *Naldo *Narisco *Ned *Neil *Nerio *Newton *Nick *Nicky *Nicodemo *Nigel *Nils *Noah *Norton Odile: *Orabella *Orlanda *Ornella *Orsola *Odalis *Octavia *Odelia *Ottavia Andros 1337 (talk) 22:10, September 16, 2014 (UTC) YES TO OCTAVIA! You're going to make this cellist and Vinyl they happiest fillies alive. GO OCTAVIA! rarity is best pony 22:34, September 16, 2014 (UTC) : Not sure if Norbert'll go, but in the event it does, I would pick Neil as his replacement, with my personal runner-ups being Nico or Nigel. I would've picked Newton but unfortunately he's already on the EPac naming lists, scheduled for use in 2016. Irma and Imelda are currently in use in the Atlantic, being the replacements of Irene and Ingrid, respectively, and I find India very unlikely due to the country, similar to Israel which was removed in 2001. I still stick with Inga as my primary choice for Iselle, with a close runner-up being Ivy, and my runner-ups for Olina would be Ornella or Ora. Ryan1000 22:44, September 16, 2014 (UTC) ::Picking out of Andros' list, I would prefer Octavia for Odile and Nathan or Neil for Norbert. I don't think Norbert will be retired though.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:28, September 16, 2014 (UTC) Post-season changes The first TCR of the season was released on the 12th, so I figured it was time to start this section. Boris's strength was upped to 40 kts/998 mbar (from the operational peak of 35 kts/999 mbar). It also never made landfall - while it was operationally believed to have done so, post-analysis found that the low-level center actually remained offshore, coming within 20 nmi of the coast before dissipating. No deaths were reported from Boris while it was a tropical cyclone, but the precursor disturbance killed 5 in Guatemala. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) : Looks Like Cristina and Elida are now out. Nothing's particularly special intensity-wise, but the NHC report did say there was some extensive beach erosion and damage to hotels along the southern Mexican coast from Elida, so it looks like she wasn't a complete fail. Updated to include her a 1%. Ryan1000 20:25, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I wasn't expecting that much impact from Elida. Guess she wasn't so pathetic after all. AndrewTalk To Me 07:35, August 29, 2014 (UTC) ::::Fausto is out, nothing special though. Ryan1000 17:57, September 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Amanda's has been released, it remains a strong cat 4, though the ACE has changed a bit. As for the Atlantic...as of now, none are released yet, but if we don't get significant activity soon, with only 5 storms thus far, I'll bend the December 1st rule again this year and open the TCR betting pool for the ATL by October 15. Ryan1000 20:41, September 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::I was hoping post-analysis would reveal our first May C5, but oh well. There's always next season! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:51, September 24, 2014 (UTC)